Euro Risk For Short Term Bulls at 1.5611

Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Strategist

Risk on EURUSD longs can be moved to 1.5611 (for short term traders) and 1.9648 on GBPUSD. The AUDUSD has rallied as expected and risk there can be moved to .9475 (roughly breakeven).

USD dollar recovering due to better then expected data

The euro fell to the lowest level in more than a week against the dollar before a central bank report that may show German industrial production slowed in May.

US Dollar Under Pressure

Written by Jamie Saettele, Technical Currency Strategist
(Wednesday, 02 July 2008 13:49:44 GMT)

The EURUSD triangle count is eliminated with the push through 1.5843. Still, a small second wave should unfold in the EURUSD next week and bring the pair back near 1.5700. Near term, 1.5900 is resistance.

The EURUSD is expected to exceed 1.6018 and continue on to all-time highs in the next few weeks. We can eliminate the triangle count since the EURUSD exceeded 1.5843. This leaves us with 2 counts going forward. The preferred count treats the advance from 1.5283 as a series of 1st and 2nd waves (1 and 2 of V). The rally from 1.5303 is wav i of 3. While wave i of 3 may extend a bit more, expect a wave ii drop to begin soon and bring price back below 1.5720.

Bigger picture, the NZDUSD is expected to advance to the 50% of .7921-.7445 at .7683 and perhaps even the 61.8%-78.6% at .7740-.7920. A rally to there would fill the 6/4 gap. The up-down sequence from .7445 is probably waves A and B. Wave C is considered underway as long as price is above .7530.

STRATEGY: Bullish, against .7530, target TBD

Dollar to Remain Range-Bound Against the Franc

Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Analyst with Luis Gil,
(Tuesday, 01 July 2008 04:15:31 GMT)

A failure of follow-through on the rumors of a surprise SNB rate increase coupled with uncertainty over the fate of the US economy as the Fed shifts to neutral amid record-setting weakness in the US labor market has seen USDCHF settle into a range.

Trading Tip – Labor market statistics have gained particular prominence as last month’s US unemployment rate saw its largest gain in 22 years. Consumer price gains for Switzerland may also increase volatility as the SNB has been rumored to issue a one-off rate increase. Traders may want to exert particular caution around these releases, with the most conservative opting to remove pending entries until the event risk has passed. In addition to a stop loss, we will look to control risk further by removing any unfilled orders by the end of the week or should spot close above 1.0453.

Traders Push Back Speculation Of A Fed Hike As Growth, Markets Sour

Written by John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst
(Wednesday, 02 July 2008 10:11:03 GMT)

The FOMC rate decision passed as expected with the policy group bringing the most aggressive interest rate easing cycle in decades to an end by leaving the benchmark rate unchanged at 2.00 percent. Adding a hawkish tinge to the event, the Fed further raised its concern about inflation pressures. However, market participants were still clearly disappointed by the outcome as expectations for a quarter point hike by September dropped from nearly 90 percent to 65 percent according to futures. Downgrades to the outlook for economic growth and the health of the financial markets no doubt contributed to the dampened speculation.